Friday, April 27, 2012

April 24th Primary Roundup

Format note: Previous to this last round of primaries, Biblical Conservatism has given "Reactions to (Insert Primary or Primaries here)." Since Mitt Romney has, for all intents and purposes, locked up the GOP Nomination, there's not much to react to moving forward. However, there are still nuggets to glean from the results.

This past Tuesday, five more states (Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, and New York) held their Republican primary contests. It was a clean sweep for Romney, as expected. With Rick Santorum out of the race, Newt Gingrich soon to be out, and Ron Paul never really having a chance, if Mitt didn't sweep the votes it would have been as shocking as, well, ever seeing President Ron Paul. (Sorry, J.D.)

However, there is something notable to see about Romney's vote tallies, or rather the tallies of the rest of the field. We're going to take a bit of time to look at that now. Remember that, even though Rick Santorum had left the campaign, he was still on the ballot in all five states. All numbers are rounded to the nearest whole number.

Connecticut:  Mitt won the state with 64% of the vote, with Ron Paul getting 14% of the vote, Newt Gingrich with 10% and Rick Santorum winning 7%. It's a New England state, where many of the Republicans are farther to the left than some Southern Democrats. However, the vote means about 31% of Connecticut Republicans preferred a candidate more conservative than Mitt Romney.

Delaware: Mitt won the state with about 57% of the vote, with Newt Gingrich garnering about 27% of the vote, Ron Paul gaining about 11% of the vote and Rick Santorum garnering about 6% of the vote. What does that mean? It means approximately 43% of voting Delaware Republicans preferred a candidate more conservative than Mitt Romney.

Rhode Island: Mitt won the state with about 63% of the vote. Ron Paul garnered about 24% of the vote, Newt and Santorum each got about 6% of the vote. Again, it's a New England state, where many of the Republicans are farther to the left than some Southern Democrats. Still, approximately 36% of Republican voters in Rhode Island preferred a candidate more conservative than Mitt Romney.

Pennsylvania: Mitt won the state with about 58% of the vote. Rick Santorum won 18% of the vote, Ron Paul won about 13% of the vote, and Newt won 11% of the vote.  That means 42% of Republican voters in Pennsylvania preferred a candidate more conservative than Mitt Romney.

New York: Mitt won the state with 62% of the vote. Ron Paul won 16% of the vote with Newt Gingrich garnering 13% and Rick Santorum winning 9%. (As some of you know, I live in New York State.  Even though I know it was merely a vote for the record, I did cast my ballot for Newt Gingrich.  So you DelusiNewts out there...don't give me grief.)  That means 38% of New York Republicans preferred a candidate more conservative than Mitt Romney

On average from those five states (and this is not a weighted average, friends) 38% of Republicans who voted on Tuesday preferred a candidate more conservative than Mitt Romney.   Realizing that none of these states are red state (Obama won them all in 2008), this should tell Romney something important.  Mitt needs to worry about his base, not moderating.

Remember, friends, based on Gallup's 2012 ideology poll, a conservative only needs to win 33% of the self-identified moderates (plus all the conservatives) to win the popular vote in 2012. A liberal (which Obama most definitely is, friends) needs to win 86% of the self-identified moderates to win the popular vote in 2012 (plus all the liberals).

Mitt needs to have the strong support of conservatives to win.  Not just their votes...he needs us to fight for him to support him to persuade people. He needs us to be excitied, to donate, to volunteer.

Mitt, let this set of primaries be a lesson to you: You need conservatives. Don't hide from us. We're the majority!

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